General

A study reported in 1983 of subscription costs for 100 serial titles (50 U.S./Canadian titles; 25 non-U.S./non-Canadian titles; and 25 reference services) over a 7-year period (1975-81) showed that:

         the average price increase of the U.S./Canadian titles was 84.7%, with 4 titles (8%) maintaining their prices and 18 titles (36%) showing an increase of 100% or more;

         the average price increase of the non-U.S./non-Canadian titles was 121.44%, with no titles maintaining their price and 14 titles (56%) showing increases of 100% or more;

         the average price increase of the reference services was 67.6%, with 2 of the titles (8%) maintaining their prices and 6 titles  (24%) showing increases of 100% or more.    Source

         Ibid. . . . showed that the overall average price increase was 76.2%, compared to the Consumer Price Index increase for the same period of 69% in the U.S. and 71% in Canada.        Source

 Academic

A study reported in 1972 of price and page increases for 20 physics journals between 1959 and 1969 showed that the average overall price increase was 202% with an overall average increase in the number of pages in these journals of 147%. Subtracting out the percent of page increase, the price increase falls to 55% for this 10-year period.        Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that during this period the number of issues increased from:  264 to 481, an increase of 82%.           Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that the average page and price increase during this period by publishing group was as follows: 

                for the 8 American Institute of Physics journals the page increase was 161% with a price increase of 157% for a net price        increase of  -4%;

                for the 6 commercially published journals the page increase was 171% with a price increase of 283% for a net price increase of 112%;

                and for 6 other society or nonprofit journals the page increase was 72% with a price increase of 189% for a net price increase of 117%.    Source

 A study reported in 1975 comparing book price increases reported in the Bowker Annual of Library and Book Trade Information with actual price increases encountered on English-language material acquired through approval plans at 3 universities (University of Nebraska, years 1966-67 and 1967-68; Florida Atlantic University, 1969-70 and 1970-71; and Arizona State University, 1971-72) during the period 1967-72 showed that Bowker indicated a 48.1% increase, while the libraries showed an 18.5% increase for this period.    Source

 An Indiana University survey for the National Science Foundation reported in 1979 showed that library administrators in major academic libraries responded to shortages in the library materials serials budget primarily by canceling duplicates and shifting funds from monographic to serials accounts. The third most common tactic was to halt new subscriptions in order to renew old ones.   Source

         Ibid. . . . showed that during the period 1969-76 large academic libraries increased the percentage of their budget spent on serials at the expense of monographs. In 1969 $2 was spent on serials for every $1 on monographs; by 1976 a steady decrease had reduced the ratio to $1.23 for serials for each $1 spent on monographs.     Source

 A study reported in 1980 at the University of Rochester comparing costs of 1-year versus 3-year journal subscriptions, based on a sample of 20business administration and management science periodicals, showed that, when 4 variables were considered (cost of capital, reorder costs, average inflation rate for 1-year subscriptions, and ratio of 3-year to 1-year subscription costs), the 3-year subscription period was always the most advantageous in terms of cost. Specifically, the least projected savings for the 20 periodicals was 12%, while the most in projected savings that could be realized was 106%. The savings was due to locking in advantageous subscription rates for a 3-year period and to reduced staff costs caused by reduced renewal activity.     Source

 A study reported in 1981 of the annual price indexes and average prices of academic periodicals reported in Library Journal for the 12-year period 1967-79 showed that the overall price increase of periodicals for this period was 250.7%. This compared to a price increase of 89.7% for the previous 12-year period, 1957-69       Source

         Ibid. . . . showed that, even if periodical budgets increased at the same rate as overall inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for the 1967-79 period, the overall periodical purchasing power of those budgets would have declined from 100% in 1967-69 (base years) to 62% in 1979.    Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that, even if periodical budgets increased at the same rate as overall inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for the 1967-79 period, the periodical purchasing power declined differentially by subject area from 100% in 1967-69 (base years) to the following figures in 1979: law (90%), history (89%), general interest (86%), literature and language (84%), zoology (72%), agriculture (72%), medicine (66%), library science (65%), chemistry and physics (45%), and labor/industrial relations (41%).   Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that, if a library had the same acquisitions budget in 1979 that it had in 1967, it would be able to purchase overall only 29% of the periodicals in 1979 it could have purchased in 1967.     Source
 

A study reported in 1983 at Harvard University updating an earlier study and comparing the average periodical prices of the Widener price index (based on humanities and social science periodicals published in the U.S., France, Germany, Great Britain, and Italy) with the average periodical prices in comparable sections of 2 published indexes (an international index compiled by John B. Merriam of Blackwell and published in the Library Association Record; and a domestic index compiled by Norman Brown and Jane Phillips and published in the Library Journal) showed that, while the average prices for all 3 indexes were quite different during the 12-year period 1970-82, the Widener index was nevertheless highly correlated with the 2 published indexes so that the published indexes were effective tools to predict average periodical prices for the Widener humanities and social science collection. Specifically, in 1970 the average Widener periodical cost $9.45, the average Blackwell periodical cost $12.96, and the average LI periodical cost $10.41; by 1982 these costs were $38.11, $46.58, and $44.80 respectively. On the other hand, the Widener and the Blackwell average periodical prices for the same 12-year period had a correlation coefficient of r = .9971, while the Widener and the U average periodical prices had a correlation coefficient of r = .9662 (Widener index for U.S. periodicals only had a correlation coefficient with U periodicals of r = .9938).     Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that using the Blackwell published data to predict changes in the Widener index (based on at least 9 years of Widener average periodical data to establish the regression line) enabled Harvard to predict humanities and social science average periodical prices within at least 1.4%each year over a 4-year period. Over the 4-year period, the cumulative error in prediction was 1%.      Source
 

Special

A study reported in 1980 comparing the subscription rates as reported in Ulrich’s International Periodicals Directory for 135 journals on the 1977 Brandon list (for the small hospital library) for the years 1958, 1963, 1968, 1973, and 1978 showed that the average cost per journal increased from $11.38 in 1958 to $36.16 in 1978. This represented a cost increase of 218%, compared to a cost increase of 126% for the Consumer Price Index for the same period.     Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that for the 5 5-year periods, the lowest rate of increase was during the period 1958-63 (9% increase), while the highest rate of increase was during the 1973-78 period (56% increase). In ailS periods the rate of journal increase exceeded the Consumer Price Index increase.     Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that, without adjusting the increase in journal costs for inflation, 1978 dollars would only have bought 31% of the journal subscriptions they would have bought in 1958. If adjustments for inflation were made (using the Consumer Price Index), the 1978 dollars would still only have bought 70% of the journal subscriptions they would have bought in 1958.    Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that the rate of increase in journal costs for the 135 journals on the 1977 Brandon list, while large, was nevertheless substantially lower than the increases generally for U.S. periodicals or generally for medical periodicals. For example, based on the Brown annual price surveys in Library Journal for the period 1968-78, the cost increases for the various groups of journals during this period can be shown as follows:

                for the 135 Brandon list journals, the 1968 dollars would have purchased only 46% of the 1978 journal subscriptions;

                for medical periodicals on the Brown list, the 1968 dollars would have purchased only 34% of the 1978 journal
subscriptions;

                for U.S. periodicals on the Brown list, the 1968 dollars would have purchased only 31% of the 1978 journal subscriptions.

                All of these drops in purchasing power were greater than the general rate of inflation for this period as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The CPI dollar dropped to 53% of its 1968 value by 1978.     Source
 

An annual study reported in 1982 of prices for legal publications showed that in 1980-81 prices for monographs increased 0 5% from the previous year, while prices for all categories of serials together increased  9 8% from the previous year     Source

        Ibid. . .  showed that between 1973 74 and 1980-81 the cost per average legal serial title (based on over 700 serial titles published in each year), including periodicals, commercially published court reporters, looseleaf services, and legal continuations, increased from $50 08 to $106 44 for an increase of 112 54%      Source

        Ibid. . . showed that between 1973-74 and 1980 81 the cost per average legal periodical (based on over 340 periodical titles published in each of the years) rose from $11.95 to $21.07 for an increase of 76.32%.    Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that between 1973-74 and 1980-81 the cost per average legal looseleaf service title (based on 92 looseleaf service titles in each of the years) rose from $181.80 to $374.65 for an increase of 106.08%.    Source

        Ibid. . .  showed that between 1973-74 and 1980-81 the cost per average commercially published court reporter (based on at least 14 such reporters in each of the years) rose from $173.63 to $326.19 for an increase of 87 86%       Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that between 1973-74 and 1980-81 the cost per average legal continuation (based on 260 or more continuation titles for each of the years) rose from $44.07 to $130.32 for an increase of 195.71%.     Source

A study reported in 1983, concerning inflation of medical journal prices and based on prices of 111 journals listed on the 1983 Brandon list, showed that the average costs of these journals at 5-year intervals between 1963 and 1983 were as follows:

                1963  $11.81 average journal cost

                1968  $14.00 average journal cost

                1973 $21.16 average journal cost

                1978 $33.35 average journal cost

                1983  $59.67 average journal cost     Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that for the 20-year period not only did the cost of the average journal subscription increase, but the rate of increase increased as well. Further, the increase in the average journal subscription was always greater than the increase in the Consumer Price Index. For example, the percentage increase in journal costs and in the Consumer Price Index by 5-year intervals for the period 1963-1983 was as follows:

                1963-68     19%   journal/12% CPI increase

                1968-73     51%   journal!28% CPI increase

                1973-78     58%   journall47% CPI increase

                1978-83     79%   journall5O% CPI increase

      Further, for the overall period 1963-83, the journals increased a total of 405%, while the Consumer Price Index increased a total of 219%               Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that during the period 1963-83 a journal budget that increased at the same rate as the Consumer Price Index would by 1983 only purchase 65% of the journal titles it could purchase in 1963.    Source

        Ibid. . . . showed that a comparison of price increases for Brandon list journals, compared to price increases for medical journals and overall U.S. periodicals listed by Brown in Library Journal, revealed that during each of the 3 5-year periods between 1968-83, the increases for overall U.S. periodicals and for medical journals were almost always larger than for the Brandon journals. For example:

                in 1968-73 U.S. periodicals increased 87%, medical periodicals increased by 73%, and the Brandon list journals increased by 51%;

                in 1973-78 U.S. periodicals and medical periodicals both increased by 70%, while Brandon list journals increased by 58%;

                in 1978-83 (data for U.S. periodicals and medical periodicals based on 1982 data) U.S. periodicals increased 63%, medical periodicals increased by 80%, and Brandon list journals increased by 79%.    Source

Dr. David Kohl

 "Libraries in the digital age are experiencing the most profound transformation since ancient Mesopotamian scribes first began gathering and organizing cuneiform tablets."

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